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Monday, March 8, 2010

S&P 500 Sectors Update

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This is an update on the S&P 500 Sectors via the 9 Select SPDRS ETFs.  The US Dollar small pullback and recent sideways trading has allowed some equities, indexes, and sectors to breakout upside.  Over the weekend, I reviewed the 4 major ETF stock indexes: SPY, DIA, QQQQ, IWM.  In addition, I reviewed the S&P 500, SPX, and US Dollar, USDX.

2 of the 9 Select SPDR ETFs, XLP and XLY, now have buy/long/bull signals, indicating an intermediate-term bull market has returned. XLI is very close to generating the a bull market signal, but currently is still in bear market.  The remaining 6 sectors remain in an intermediate-term bear market.  All 9 sectors are in a long-term bull market.


Intermediate-Term Bull Market


XLP Consumer Staples
Buy/long/bull signal occurred on March 2 (25d sma > 50d sma)
Above 25d and 50d sma's; 25d sma ascending at increasing rate
Above 2010 highs; no recent resistance remaining
Current closing price in September/October 2008 plus July/August 2008 sideways trading range

XLY Consumer Discretionary
Buy/long/bull signal occurred on March 8 (25d sma > 50d sma)
Above 25d and 50d sma's; 25d sma ascending at increasing rate
Above 2010 highs; no recent resistance remaining
Current closing price is in March through September 2008 general trading range


Intermediate-Term Bear Market


XLB Materials
Above 25d and 50d sma's, 25d sma ascending at increasinig rate
Below 2010 highs; below November and December 2009 highs; recent resistance above

XLE Energy
Above 25d and 50d sma's; 25d sma ascending at increasing rate
Below 2010 highs; below October and November 2009 highs; recent resistance above

XLF Financial
Above 25d and 50d sma's; 25d sma ascending at increasing rate
Just below 2010 highs; below September and October  2009 highs; recent resistance above

XLI Industrial
Above 25d and 50d sma's; 25d sma ascending at increasing rate
25d sma is very close to crossing 50d sma which will be buy/long/bull signal
Above 2010 highs; no recent resistance remaining
Current closing price in the downward drop of early October 2008

XLK Technology
Above 25d and 50d sma's; 25d sma ascending at increasing rate
Below 2010 highs and 12-31-09 year end close; recent resistance above

XLU Utilities
Above 25d and 50d sma's; 25d sma beginning to ascend
Below 2010 highs; below September through December 2009 highs; much recent resistance above

XLV Health Care
Above 25d and 50d sma's; 25d sma beginning to ascend
Below 2010 highs; recent resistance above


Sector Charts


I am including all 9 sector monthly long-term charts below, from October 2007 through March 2010.  See commentary above.

The 3 yellow horizontal lines on each chart are current closing price, 12-31-09 year end closing price, and the 10 month exponential moving average (also the white moving average).  The 10m ema is the long-term bull/bear market signal.  All 9 sectors are in a long-term bull market, that is, the current closing price is above the 10m ema.  The yellow uptrend line is from the sector bottom, usually concurrent with the market March 9, 2009 bottom or thereabouts, up through the lowest closing price during the 2010 pullback/correction.











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